Probability question...

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Sdredden1

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Hello, so this really is my own homework to help myself with life in general. So basically my question is this. This is not at all accurate either. I have three, random, two minute seizures per 30 day month. What is the probability that one of these two minute seizures would occur during driving time if I drove one hour twice daily? Thank you so much!!! Any questions you have about me or anything else I'd be glad to answer, thanks a bunch!
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#1 - If the probability is not zero (0), then you should be worried about it. One mishap, one time, in satisfactory neither to you nor to society.

#2 - A Poisson Distribution is perfectly scalable.

2 / 30 days
1 / 15 days
1 / 360 hrs
(1/180) / 2 hrs <== This is your daily expectation.

There you have it. You should expect to have a serious, perhaps fatal, problem about twice a year, Please refer to response #1.
 
tkhunny said:
#1 - If the probability is not zero (0), then you should be worried about it. One mishap, one time, in satisfactory neither to you nor to society.

#2 - A Poisson Distribution is perfectly scalable.

2 / 30 days
1 / 15 days
1 / 360 hrs
(1/180) / 2 hrs <== This is your daily expectation.

There you have it. You should expect to have a serious, perhaps fatal, problem about twice a year, Please refer to response #1.
Click to expand...
Thank you!!!
 
The problem with applying probability to questions like this is that probability theory essentially applies to large numbers. If you are a male aged 75, you may have a life expectancy of 11 years, but that says what the average life span of thousands of males that age will be. It does not mean that you will live 11 years and then drop dead.
 
Let's also recall that some language seems appropriate when speaking of theoretical concepts, but has no application whatsoever in real life. In this case, I can calculate it and I can say it, but you cannot actually have two fatal problems in one year. You're dead on the first one.
 
Thank you guys, just a heads up I do have temporal lobe epilepsy, I've had it for 6 years, had no idea, was diagnosed about a year and a half ago and the doctor just took my license. Realistically they only occur at most once a month. In the 6 years it only happened once while driving, the time it cost me my license. I always have a 30 second aura warning, had time to pull over and find a parking spot. I'm also a heavy equipment operator and had time time to just stop moving the machine and wait it out. it just feels like I'm going to pass out for about 20 or so seconds but I never do. I was exaggerating above just to get an idea as I knew it couldn't be a very high chance regardless... It only happened once at work as well. Anyways thanks again!
 
Tough business living with that sort of thing. I wish you well.
 
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