PROBABILITY THEORY

[kongkearath]

Please help me answer this problem and explain how you got the answer (as much as possible, show the math skills involved). Thank you so much.

In a distant past where party games are still allowed, a boring mathematician host presented two jars with the same appearance and tells you (another boring but very competitive mathematician): There are two red and one black balls in one jar (named as X) and 101 red and 100 black balls in the other jar (named as Y). He then takes out one ball from one of the jars, showing it to you, and asks you whether to put it back or not. After according to your answer, he takes out again a ball from the same pot, showing it to you. He then now asks you whether the pot he has drawn a ball from in the last time is X or Y.

In order to get a larger probability that you guess correctly (since you are highly competitive), should your first answer be to put the ball back or not?

 

[tkhunny]

I almost provided some dialog, but I got bored.

 

[Steven G]

Are you serious about coming to a math help forum and asking helpers here to solve your problem for you? I am sure that you realized that this is a math help forum which means we help students solve their problems. Have we really come to a point where student equates receiving help with doing the problem for you.

If you seriously want help then you should read the posting guidelines, follow them and post back. At that point you will receive expert help.

 

[kongkearath]

Are you serious about coming to a math help forum and asking helpers here to solve your problem for you? I am sure that you realized that this is a math help forum which means we help students solve their problems. Have we really come to a point where student equates receiving help with doing the problem for you.

If you seriously want help then you should read the posting guidelines, follow them and post back. At that point you will receive expert help.

I'm sorry. Won't ask for help here again.

 

[kongkearath]

I almost provided some dialog, but I got bored.

I'm sorry if you find my problem boring. You should've just ignored it, I guess I have to apologize since sharing ideas/knowledge is such a waste of time for people in this platform.

 

[Steven G]

I'm sorry if you find my problem boring. You should've just ignored it, I guess I have to apologize since sharing ideas/knowledge is such a waste of time for people in this platform.

No, we like sharing ideas but apparently you don't. It was you who came here, posted a problem and expected to come back to find a solution to your problem without being involved at all. Then you come back and insult my comrade. Either obey our rules or go away.

 

[Steven G]

I'm sorry. Won't ask for help here again.

Excuse me but you did not ask for help. You just posted a problem and left.

 

[Deleted member 4993]

I'm sorry if you find my problem boring. You should've just ignored it, I guess I have to apologize since sharing ideas/knowledge is such a waste of time for people in this platform.

You responded before (#2) indicating that you "liked" his response!!!

 

[Dr.Peterson]

Please help me answer this problem and explain how you got the answer (as much as possible, show the math skills involved). Thank you so much.

In a distant past where party games are still allowed, a boring mathematician host presented two jars with the same appearance and tells you (another boring but very competitive mathematician): There are two red and one black balls in one jar (named as X) and 101 red and 100 black balls in the other jar (named as Y). He then takes out one ball from one of the jars, showing it to you, and asks you whether to put it back or not. After according to your answer, he takes out again a ball from the same pot, showing it to you. He then now asks you whether the pot he has drawn a ball from in the last time is X or Y.

In order to get a larger probability that you guess correctly (since you are highly competitive), should your first answer be to put the ball back or not?

How about if we start over.

You asked for help answering this problem. (I'll ignore that you implied that means providing a complete answer and explanation.)

Giving help means working with you, not just giving an answer; but as it stands, we have no idea where you need help, as you showed none of your own thinking. Do that, and we'll be happy to interact with you.

So, did you calculate any of the probabilities involved? Where did you get stuck?

 

[Duplicity]

Sorry to jump in, but by intuition you don’t want the ball to be put back in the jar. Still, you are not showing any will to involve in the solution, I will only be writing my intuition.
Cheers

 

[tkhunny]

I'm sorry if you find my problem boring. You should've just ignored it, I guess I have to apologize since sharing ideas/knowledge is such a waste of time for people in this platform.

It's a joke, right? Intended to inspire you to read the forum rules, maybe laugh at yourself a little for not reading them, first. Then, learning some statistics and/or mathematics.