Probablity Headache

Bond 007

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May 11, 2016
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1
-Can anyone help me with this question
1)
Police are investigating the murder of a woman who was stabbed to death. Based on someinitial inquiries, the investigators believed that there was a 5% chance that her husband wasresponsible for her murder.An autopsy showed that the stab wounds were consistent with the murderer being lefthanded.In addition, a sample of Type A blood was found under the fingernails of thevictim, and investigators concluded that this sample must have belonged to the killer.The victim’s husband is left-handed, and has Type A blood. 10% of the population areleft-handed, and 38% of the population have Type A blood. In light of this evidence, whatis the posterior probability that the husband is guilty of the murder?

2)
The US Government’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate relativerisks for a wide range of diseases and risk factors.The most recent CDC data2shows that the relative risk of lung cancer for males is 25. In2014, the percentage of adult American males who smoked3 was 19%.
a) What proportion of the cases of lung cancer in American males are due to exposure tosmoking?
b) As part of their Healthy People 2020 program, the US Government have set a target ofreducing the smoking rate to 12%. What will be the reduction in lung cancer cases if thistarget is achieved?
 
-Can anyone help me with this question
1)
Police are investigating the murder of a woman who was stabbed to death. Based on someinitial inquiries, the investigators believed that there was a 5% chance that her husband wasresponsible for her murder.An autopsy showed that the stab wounds were consistent with the murderer being lefthanded.In addition, a sample of Type A blood was found under the fingernails of thevictim, and investigators concluded that this sample must have belonged to the killer.The victim’s husband is left-handed, and has Type A blood. 10% of the population areleft-handed, and 38% of the population have Type A blood. In light of this evidence, whatis the posterior probability that the husband is guilty of the murder?

2)
The US Government’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate relativerisks for a wide range of diseases and risk factors.The most recent CDC data2shows that the relative risk of lung cancer for males is 25. In2014, the percentage of adult American males who smoked3 was 19%.
a) What proportion of the cases of lung cancer in American males are due to exposure tosmoking?
b) As part of their Healthy People 2020 program, the US Government have set a target ofreducing the smoking rate to 12%. What will be the reduction in lung cancer cases if thistarget is achieved?


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