Question about probability (gr12 data management)

[nda]

Prior to a municipal election, a public-opinion poll determined that the probability of each of the four candidates winning was as follows:
Jonsson 10%
Trimble 32%
Yakamoto 21%
Audette 37%

a) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race after
ballots are cast?

b) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race before
ballots are cast?

I don't have any work done because I'm not sure where to even start.

 

[Deleted member 4993]

Prior to a municipal election, a public-opinion poll determined that the probability of each of the four candidates winning was as follows:
Jonsson 10%
Trimble 32%
Yakamoto 21%
Audette 37%

a) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race after
ballots are cast?

b) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race before
ballots are cast?

I don't have any work done because I'm not sure where to even start.

Start with the assumption that there are 100 voters.

How many of these votes were cast for Jonsson? After Jonsson withdraws, how many valid votes remain?

continue.....

Please show us what you have tried and exactly where you are stuck.

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[Dr.Peterson]

Prior to a municipal election, a public-opinion poll determined that the probability of each of the four candidates winning was as follows:
Jonsson 10%
Trimble 32%
Yakamoto 21%
Audette 37%

a) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race after
ballots are cast?

b) How will these probabilities change if
Jonsson withdraws from the race before
ballots are cast?

I don't have any work done because I'm not sure where to even start.

There are some major unknowns here; perhaps you have been told how to interpret them.

What are the rules for a withdrawal after voting?

What are you assuming will happen if someone withdraws before the vote? Will his voters refuse to vote, or switch to someone else? Is there any way to know?

And, for that matter, how do probabilities relate to actual votes? I think a poll generally tells you what percent of people will vote for each candidate, not the probability of their winning!