Return to player, odds change

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Vampire150

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May 4, 2019
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Hi, i am trying to solve these problems right here.

We have a roulette player, the game is European roulette, there are 37 numbers, the payout is 1 to 35 + original bet, so 1 to 36.
The casinos edge is 2.7%.

Now, we have 2 scenarios.
The player found a defect in the wheel, and increased accuracy by 100%.
Now he only bet the numbers with a defect. What is his edge in this case?

Scenario 1, he bet single number, with 100% accuracy increase.
Scenario 2, we have 10 numbers instead of one, the increase in accuracy is 100% too, in those 10 numbers.
I had 2 formulas, but they are both completely wrong.
 
What do you mean by "The player found a defect in the wheel, and increased accuracy by 100%"? What do you mean by "accuracy"?
 
HallsofIvy said:
What do you mean by "The player found a defect in the wheel, and increased accuracy by 100%"? What do you mean by "accuracy"?
Click to expand...


The odds or accuracy is 2.7% per number, since those are the odds of coming out any from 37 numbers.
So, assuming you can know, that one number has 5.4% instead of 2.7%, you gain the accuracy, and possible the advantage over the casino, since the payout is higher then the odds. That's not the point of the topic anyways.
 
If there are 10 numbers with a probability of a win being 5.4% each. The probability that one of the 10 will win is 54%, If you bet 1 dollar on each, then 46% of the time you will lose 10 dollars. And 54% of the time you will win 36 on the winning number, and lose 9 on the other 10 numbers you bet on, for a net gain of 27.

Thus your expected gain (over many plays) will average 9.98 per play.

Don't bet on it happening in real life!
 
JeffM said:
If there are 10 numbers with a probability of a win being 5.4% each. The probability that one of the 10 will win is 54%, If you bet 1 dollar on each, then 46% of the time you will lose 10 dollars. And 54% of the time you will win 36 on the winning number, and lose 9 on the other 10 numbers you bet on, for a net gain of 27.

Thus your expected gain (over many plays) will average 9.98 per play.

Don't bet on it happening in real life!
Click to expand...


Yea, but in more math formula style, what and how i should use it? Sorry, but i am not good in this stuff.
ANother thing, if i win 54% of the time, we should take in consideration, that i bet on 10 numbers, and the return ratio is 2.6 to 1? Betting 18 number it would be almost 1:1.
Also, i need it in %, like the casinos use 2.7% to calculate the expected return.
 
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