So the problem statement goes like this: The owners of the store have a current ordering system in place. They order 2 new figurines with probability ½ and order 4 new figurines with probability ½ . The number of customers who purchase a figurine on a given day is based on unknown probabilities, but the owners did collect some data the last week. Over the past week, there were four days that had three customers purchase figurines. There were two days that had 1 customer purchase a figurine and the last day had terrible weather and no customers showed up. The owners only have space for 6 figurines on the shelves. If they ever have more than 6 figurines on hand, they have to set them on the floor, and it makes the store feel cluttered and messy. As a result, if there are ever 6 or more figurines in the store, the owners do not place an order for more figurines. There is only enough room for an additional 3 figurines on the floor. It is not possible to have more than 9 figurines on hand at any given time. Having too few figurines in the store is also a problem. There have been instances since the store opened where there were no more figurines left on the shelf and you had to turn customers away. This is obviously not a great outcome since the figurines sell at $200 per item. You need to assess the current ordering system and determine if any improvements can be made. 2 The owners tell you that the typical day flows as follows. The owners arrive early in the morning and inventory the store. Prior to the store opening at 7AM, they place the order for the day. The store is open from 7AM to 5PM when it closes for the day. The owners have a great wholesaler for the figurines and so their entire order from that morning arrives the same day at precisely 6PM. The owners then restock the shelves (and set the figurines on the floor if necessary) before heading home for the day. I need to use a markov transition Matrix to solve this BUT, how do i model when i dont have any figurines? my matrix takes into consideration: -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 as the states for the matrix but based on my instructor, is wrong. Need help.
Weirdd Statistics problem
- Thread starter betito123
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What does State -1 represent? Do they take back orders?
Do customers only EVER buy just One?
They lied about the probabilities of ordering 2 or 4. Apparently, there is some probability of ordering zero (0). Plus, is this REALLY random? Do they roll dice or do they look at the inventory before deciding how many to order?
Do customers only EVER buy just One?
They lied about the probabilities of ordering 2 or 4. Apparently, there is some probability of ordering zero (0). Plus, is this REALLY random? Do they roll dice or do they look at the inventory before deciding how many to order?
So yeah, only 1 figurine bought per customer and yes, its random. They want me to use a markov matrix for this. But they say that there are 8 states but why not more? and no, no backorders. i assumed state -1 would be a state in which you end up with -1 figurine coming from 2 figures where there is a 4/7 chance youll end up with -1.
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Except that it isn't. Sometimes, the order is zero (0), and this is determined by looking at the inventory. Perhaps you are trying to say:
1) If there are 7,8, or 9, the order is zero (0).
2) If there are 0-6, the order is 50% 2 and 50% 4.
If you are saying this, then what happens if there are 6 and then 4 are ordered? Whoops! Ill-defined ordering system.
Let's think about that -1 a bit. Makes no sense. Rethink how you made that absurd conclusion. A back order is the ONLY way that concept could be meaningful.
The ordering is '0' once you have >=6 figurines.
Yes, i need to find a way to improve the ordering process.