I'm interested in a few things:
What are the odds that a recount would flip the outcome of a statewide election in the US? Further, I'm interested in compounding this likelihood with other states since there are multiple outcomes needed to change a result.
Parameters: Recounts have averaged .016 turnover for large elections (> 2m votes cast). Given the 5% increase in voter turnout this year, it may be prudent to increase this.
For the bottom state, VI, the candidate B needs to turn over .31 percent of the votes cast to overcome the deficit.
How do I calculate the probability that B will get .31 or greater percentage overturned when the average margin of change is .016?
The average turnover rate is found here: https://www.fairvote.org/recounts
Appreciate any assistance, thank you!
What are the odds that a recount would flip the outcome of a statewide election in the US? Further, I'm interested in compounding this likelihood with other states since there are multiple outcomes needed to change a result.
Parameters: Recounts have averaged .016 turnover for large elections (> 2m votes cast). Given the 5% increase in voter turnout this year, it may be prudent to increase this.
For the bottom state, VI, the candidate B needs to turn over .31 percent of the votes cast to overcome the deficit.
How do I calculate the probability that B will get .31 or greater percentage overturned when the average margin of change is .016?
The average turnover rate is found here: https://www.fairvote.org/recounts
Appreciate any assistance, thank you!
| State | Candidate A | Candidate B | Total | Margin | % |
| I | 2,807,309 | 2,649,537 | 5,456,846 | 157,772 | 2.89% |
| II | 2,475,203 | 2,462,780 | 4,937,983 | 12,423 | 0.25% |
| III | 3,454,598 | 3,372,688 | 6,827,286 | 81,910 | 1.20% |
| IV | 1,630,716 | 1,610,151 | 3,240,867 | 20,565 | 0.63% |
| V | 703,486 | 669,890 | 1,373,376 | 33,596 | 2.45% |
| VI | 1,672,143 | 1,661,686 | 3,333,829 | 10,457 | 0.31% |