Hi neilhardy, welcome to the forum

This post is a little bit all over the place, but I'll do my best to help. I'm not sure what you

mean by "implied" probability. Also the decimal value of 1.16 is just completely wrong. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 by definition, where 0 means no chance of event A occurring, and 1 means complete certainty of event A occurring.

I'm going to stick to numbers in this range [0,1], rather than percentages, in order to avoid confusion.

So, if probability of A = 1/7 = ~0.14, then assuming either A or NOT A

*has* to occur, their probabilities should add up to 1, and you are correct that

probability of NOT A = 1 - (probability of A) = 1 - (1/7) = 6/7 = ~0.86.

Now here's where you have to be more specific/clear in order for us to help you. Are you saying that you now have a sequence of four

*independent* trials, each of which can result in either A or NOT A? If so, bear in mind that there are actually 16 possible outcomes. Also, you probably need to use the binomial distribution to compute the answer.

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