Implied probability of this combined sequence: A, NOT A, A, NOT A

neilhardy

New member
Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

A, NOT A, A, NOT A

Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

Thanks everyone

j-astron

Junior Member
Hi can someone cleverer than me assits with an implied probability query?

If the implied probability if an even lets call it A is 7-1 or14% (1.16 decimal)

I want to work out the implied probablity of this combined sequence

A, NOT A, A, NOT A

Therfore the % prob of A is 14% (100/7)
Therefore the % prob of NOT at is 100 - (100/7) = 86

Therefore the implied prob of " NOT A" as a decimal is = 100/86 = 1.16

is its 7 *.86 * 7 *.86 = 36 -1 ???? Is this right

Thanks everyone

Hi neilhardy, welcome to the forum

This post is a little bit all over the place, but I'll do my best to help. I'm not sure what you mean by "implied" probability. Also the decimal value of 1.16 is just completely wrong. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 by definition, where 0 means no chance of event A occurring, and 1 means complete certainty of event A occurring.

I'm going to stick to numbers in this range [0,1], rather than percentages, in order to avoid confusion.

So, if probability of A = 1/7 = ~0.14, then assuming either A or NOT A has to occur, their probabilities should add up to 1, and you are correct that

probability of NOT A = 1 - (probability of A) = 1 - (1/7) = 6/7 = ~0.86.

Now here's where you have to be more specific/clear in order for us to help you. Are you saying that you now have a sequence of four independent trials, each of which can result in either A or NOT A? If so, bear in mind that there are actually 16 possible outcomes. Also, you probably need to use the binomial distribution to compute the answer.

neilhardy

New member
Hi neilhardy, welcome to the forum

This post is a little bit all over the place, but I'll do my best to help. I'm not sure what you mean by "implied" probability. Also the decimal value of 1.16 is just completely wrong. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 by definition, where 0 means no chance of event A occurring, and 1 means complete certainty of event A occurring.

I'm going to stick to numbers in this range [0,1], rather than percentages, in order to avoid confusion.

So, if probability of A = 1/7 = ~0.14, then assuming either A or NOT A has to occur, their probabilities should add up to 1, and you are correct that

probability of NOT A = 1 - (probability of A) = 1 - (1/7) = 6/7 = ~0.86.

Now here's where you have to be more specific/clear in order for us to help you. Are you saying that you now have a sequence of four independent trials, each of which can result in either A or NOT A? If so, bear in mind that there are actually 16 possible outcomes. Also, you probably need to use the binomial distribution to compute the answer.

yes they are four seperate events where to possible outcome is either A (7/1) or NOT A (0,86), by not connected I mean that the result of the previous test has no bearing on the next (or prev)... Thanks again for your help...

neilhardy

New member
Hi neilhardy, welcome to the forum

This post is a little bit all over the place, but I'll do my best to help. I'm not sure what you mean by "implied" probability. Also the decimal value of 1.16 is just completely wrong. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 by definition, where 0 means no chance of event A occurring, and 1 means complete certainty of event A occurring.

I'm going to stick to numbers in this range [0,1], rather than percentages, in order to avoid confusion.

So, if probability of A = 1/7 = ~0.14, then assuming either A or NOT A has to occur, their probabilities should add up to 1, and you are correct that

probability of NOT A = 1 - (probability of A) = 1 - (1/7) = 6/7 = ~0.86.

Now here's where you have to be more specific/clear in order for us to help you. Are you saying that you now have a sequence of four independent trials, each of which can result in either A or NOT A? If so, bear in mind that there are actually 16 possible outcomes. Also, you probably need to use the binomial distribution to compute the answer.

yes tehre are 4 unconnected tests ( where two outcomes are possible A (7/1) and Not A (0.84) the result of the last has no bearing on the next and so on.

Thanks again..