Hi,
I have to make a medical diagnosis for a patient : is he A or B ?
I can not make inspection of the patient, and my only help is a poll of N medical experts that observed him.
Out of N experts, the track records for their past diagnoses are as below :
Questions :
1 / How can I maximise my chance of giving the right medical diagnosis, based only on the source of medical experts ?
2/ What if the diagnosis asked is not only A or B, but A or B or C ?
3/ What if my experts are the best Y experts out of 100, but I don't know the distribution of their success rate ?
Thanks very much for your suggestions !
I have to make a medical diagnosis for a patient : is he A or B ?
I can not make inspection of the patient, and my only help is a poll of N medical experts that observed him.
Out of N experts, the track records for their past diagnoses are as below :
- 12% of experts had a success rate of 48%
- 21% of experts had a success rate of 62%
- 22% of experts had a success rate of 78%
- 45% of experts had a success rate of 93%
Questions :
1 / How can I maximise my chance of giving the right medical diagnosis, based only on the source of medical experts ?
2/ What if the diagnosis asked is not only A or B, but A or B or C ?
3/ What if my experts are the best Y experts out of 100, but I don't know the distribution of their success rate ?
Thanks very much for your suggestions !