Calculate odds of winning most points within a certain time frame

[slackmar]

Let's say you have 365 days to earn as many points as possible and whoever has the most at the end wins.

Eample1:
On day 3, Person1 is winning by 10 points but since Person2 still has 17 days to catch up, Person1's odds of winning are say 55%.
Example2:
On day 19, Person1 is winning by 10 points but since Person2 only has 1 day to catch up, Person1's odds of winning are say 95%.

How can I go about calculating the real odds of winning? The real numbers are below.

	Points	Chance to win
Person1	132	?
Person2	145	?
Person3	115	?
Total Days	365
Days left to earn points	87

 

[Romsek]

what is the distribution of how many points each person gets a day?

 

[slackmar]

what is the distribution of how many points each person gets a day?

You earn 1 point by completing a task (so it's not random points). You can earn as many points as you want in 1 day, although the average points earned in 1 day is .47. You have 365 days to earn as many points as possible and whoever has the most at the end wins.

 

[Steven G]

On day 3, how can person2 have 17 days to catch up to person 1?

 

[slackmar]

On day 3, how can person2 have 17 days to catch up to person 1?

Okay, so I just used those numbers as basic examples of an amount of 20 days in total (3 days + 17 days = 20 days)

 

[Steven G]

Okay, so I just used those numbers as basic examples of an amount of 20 days in total (3 days + 17 days = 20 days)

Okay I get it now.