Calculation of chance of success of new equipment trialed on 10 wells

AlexY

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May 7, 2018
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Hi guys,

I need to calculate the chance of success of a new piece of equipment which will be trialed on 10 wells.
For the equipment to be tested successfully the following conditions will need to be met on each well:
1. The well has to produce gas.
2. The well has to produce water.
3. The downhole well equipment has to function normally.

The probability of each item is 50% in all wells. The total probability that the three criteria are met on a single well is: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5%.
How to calculate the probability that the three above criteria will be met on all 10 wells?
 
Hi guys,

I need to calculate the chance of success of a new piece of equipment which will be trialed on 10 wells.
For the equipment to be tested successfully the following conditions will need to be met on each well:
1. The well has to produce gas.
2. The well has to produce water.
3. The downhole well equipment has to function normally.

The probability of each item is 50% in all wells. The total probability that the three criteria are met on a single well is: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5%.
How to calculate the probability that the three above criteria will be met on all 10 wells?
Are the probabilities of success independent of the hole chosen (i.e. if you are successful in producing gas in hole 1 - does that affect the probability of success in hole 2 or hole 10?
 
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