Calculation of win % with 2 teams of 5 players

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jeffr

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Nov 9, 2019
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Hi everyone. I'm new here and don't really come from a strong math background which is why I found my way here.

Some background on what I'm doing: I play League of Legends with my friends and I coded an IRC bot that calls the Riot API to gather data on the match we are playing. The game is played with 2 teams 5 vs 5. When we enter game, the bot will report our chances of winning the game based on the win/loss of each champion. Currently I'm using a logistic regression model that I took from online calculator that does the same thing as I'm doing except that it's a webpage, not an IRC bot.

Like I said, my math background isn't extensive so I basically implemented something I really don't understand. All I know is that each champion has a number between -1 and 1 that indicates chance of winning.

I'm looking for a new model to calculate team win %. I store results in my database so my data is always increasing which I would like to impact the calculations. Also I'd like to factor in a new variable which is player rank. In League of Legends, players who choose to participate can play the came competitively. They are assigned a rank which increases or decreases based on their performance. I'd like to adjust the champion win percentage based on the player rank.

Example: If a champion has win rate of 52%, when the same champion was played by a high ranked player will have an effective win rate of 57%. I would like that to be factored into the team win percentage.

Here's an example of output of the current code for the IRC bot to help give context on what I'm doing:

beeetee is currently playing game mode: ARAM with a 75.1% of winning.
BLUE TEAM (24.9%): bagel saucee - unranked - Lissandra, FangedRabbit - unranked - Xerath, A Through Z - GOLD II - Xayah, ràt girl - SILVER I - Kaisa, Byakuun - PLATINUM IV - Leona
RED team (75.1%): A WHOLE GALLON - GOLD II - Jhin, Newgoodsdelivery - unranked - Veigar, CheeseCakePanda - BRONZE II - Graves, Beeetee - unranked - Chogath, GuardianOfMilady - unranked - Karthus


I have number of wins/losses for each champion in every game my friends and I play in.
 
jeffr said:
Hi everyone. I'm new here and don't really come from a strong math background which is why I found my way here.

Some background on what I'm doing: I play League of Legends with my friends and I coded an IRC bot that calls the Riot API to gather data on the match we are playing. The game is played with 2 teams 5 vs 5. When we enter game, the bot will report our chances of winning the game based on the win/loss of each champion. Currently I'm using a logistic regression model that I took from online calculator that does the same thing as I'm doing except that it's a webpage, not an IRC bot.

Like I said, my math background isn't extensive so I basically implemented something I really don't understand. All I know is that each champion has a number between -1 and 1 that indicates chance of winning.

I'm looking for a new model to calculate team win %. I store results in my database so my data is always increasing which I would like to impact the calculations. Also I'd like to factor in a new variable which is player rank. In League of Legends, players who choose to participate can play the came competitively. They are assigned a rank which increases or decreases based on their performance. I'd like to adjust the champion win percentage based on the player rank.

Example: If a champion has win rate of 52%, when the same champion was played by a high ranked player will have an effective win rate of 57%. I would like that to be factored into the team win percentage.

Here's an example of output of the current code for the IRC bot to help give context on what I'm doing:

beeetee is currently playing game mode: ARAM with a 75.1% of winning.
BLUE TEAM (24.9%): bagel saucee - unranked - Lissandra, FangedRabbit - unranked - Xerath, A Through Z - GOLD II - Xayah, ràt girl - SILVER I - Kaisa, Byakuun - PLATINUM IV - Leona
RED team (75.1%): A WHOLE GALLON - GOLD II - Jhin, Newgoodsdelivery - unranked - Veigar, CheeseCakePanda - BRONZE II - Graves, Beeetee - unranked - Chogath, GuardianOfMilady - unranked - Karthus


I have number of wins/losses for each champion in every game my friends and I play in.
Click to expand...
Is this a commercial project?
 
No. This is an irc bot that sits our private IRC channel. It's fun to see your chances on winning based on statistics. I have other stats I calculated based on the current model which tells me how many games I lost when I was "supposed" to win and how many games I won that I was supposed to lose. Those breakpoints are 75% and 25% respectively.

Spoiler: I'm bad at this game.
 
Are you trying to calculate the theoretical probability? I don't play the game, so I'm rather confused by your terminology.
 
So given 2 teams, with 5 champions on each team. I have how many wins/losses which champion has. I'm looking to calculate the % chance of winning of each team given each champion has their own w/l stats.
 
Sure.. consider the following as an example:

Team A:
Player 1, Player 2, Player 3, Player 4, Player 5

Team B
Player A, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E

Each player has a number of wins and losses, therefore a win % overall. I want the player's win % to affect their chances of winning future games.

Given that, what's Team A's % chance of winning? what's Team B's % chance of winning?
 
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