Coin flip

[Farmer]

The probability of flipping a coin heads is 0.5. The probability of flipping heads in three tries is 0.875. What if you know the first two tries are tails? Does the third try become 0.5 chance again?

I believe it is 0.5 knowing the first two are tails. But if the coin was flipped 99 times tails I feel like the next flip has some sort of advantage to being heads.

 

[Harry_the_cat]

The probability of flipping a coin heads is 0.5. The probability of flipping heads in three tries is 0.875. What if you know the first two tries are tails? Does the third try become 0.5 chance again?

I believe it is 0.5 knowing the first two are tails. But if the coin was flipped 99 times tails I feel like the next flip has some sort of advantage to being heads.

Actually if the coin was flipped 99 times tails, I would be thinking there is some sort of advantage to the next flip being tails again and that the coin is not a fair coin!

 

[BigBeachBanana]

Actually if the coin was flipped 99 times tails, I would be thinking there is some sort of advantage to the next flip being tails again and that the coin is not a fair coin.!

Well, if that's out of 100 trials, then yes, but expected for 200 trials.

 

[Harry_the_cat]

Well, if that's out of 100 trials, then yes, but expected for 200 trials.

Yes. But I was assuming 99 tails in a row.

 

[Steven G]

The probability of flipping a coin heads is 0.5. The probability of flipping heads in three tries is 0.875. What if you know the first two tries are tails? Does the third try become 0.5 chance again?

I believe it is 0.5 knowing the first two are tails. But if the coin was flipped 99 times tails I feel like the next flip has some sort of advantage to being heads.

It really depends on whether or not the coin remembers what the last two tosses were. Do you think that coins have memory?
Do you really think that if a FAIR coin was tossed 99 times, then the next toss has a better chance of being a head? Why is that?

You ask: Does the third try become 0.5 chance again?
I have just one comment to make. When was the chances of tossing a head different from 0.5?