Conditional proability and Bayes' Theorem

amanpoddar375

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# Bag M consists of 5 red and 4 white balls and bag N consists of 4 red and 4 white balls. A bag is selected at random and a ball is transferred to other. Two balls are drawn one after another from bag N. Find the probability that
a) They are different color.
b) They are same color if
i) first ball is returned back.
ii) first ball is not returned back.
 
Clearly you are aware of conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem! Can you at least state what they are, and try applying them here?

Keep in mind that our goal is to help you learn to solve problems, so we need know what specific help you need. See our submission guidelines.
 
Clearly you are aware of conditional probability and Bayes' Theorem! Can you at least state what they are, and try applying them here?

Keep in mind that our goal is to help you learn to solve problems, so we need know what specific help you need. See our submission guidelines.
I have tried but I didn't get much clearer about the question. That's why I posted this here.
The very second sentence of questions created trouble for me.
And if you are not interested for solution it is okay at least help me out in understanding the question. And what steps I should go to.
 
# Bag M consists of 5 red and 4 white balls and bag N consists of 4 red and 4 white balls. A bag is selected at random and a ball is transferred to other. Two balls are drawn one after another from bag N. Find the probability that
a) They are different color.
b) They are same color if
i) first ball is returned back.
ii) first ball is not returned back.
Some people just take pleasure in writing an overly complicated question. This is one.
This space is partitioned into four cells. First is bag M or bag N chosen? Then what colour ball is transferred?
Suppose bag M is chosen and then a red ball is pulled out. Now bag N has 5 red balls & 4 white.
What is the probability that happens? \(\displaystyle \mathcal{P}(M\cap R_m)=?\) Now to finish this one scenario , what is the probability that two balls of the different colours are pulled out of bag N?

There are three more scenarios: M & W_m; N & R_n; & N & w_n. What are the three?
Note that in the case N is chosen the number of balls in bag N is reduced by one.

Please post post some effort.
 
I have tried but I didn't get much clearer about the question. That's why I posted this here.
Actually, it really helps if you show us even the little that you tried, because it gives us a place to start; I asked specific questions in the hope that you would be willing to go along and take that first step. (Theorems are not always stated in the same way, and using the form you were taught would make it easier to be sure we are communicating clearly.)

But at least you've indicated where in the problem we can start:

The very second sentence of questions created trouble for me.

# Bag M consists of 5 red and 4 white balls and bag N consists of 4 red and 4 white balls. A bag is selected at random and a ball is transferred to other. Two balls are drawn one after another from bag N. Find the probability that
a) They are different color.
b) They are same color if
i) first ball is returned back.
ii) first ball is not returned back.
As pka suggested, let's look only at (ai) to keep it simple.

I will assume "the second sentence" that confuses you is the one in bold. I'll try restating the problem as I understand it, focusing on that:

We have two sets of balls:
  • M = {R,R,R,R,R,W,W,W,W}
  • N = {R,R,R,R,W,W,W,W}
Phase 1: We select one of these sets (say, M), then select one ball from there (say, R) and move it to the other set (in this case, N).

Phase 2: We select a ball from set N, put it back, stir them up, and again pick a ball from set N. (This is the meaning of "the first ball is returned back"; the usual phrase for this is "with replacement". It means that the probabilities for the second ball are unchanged.)

So, as pka indicated, there are four possibilities for what happens in phase 1: move Red from M, move White from M, move Red from N, move White from N. Each of these has a probability of occurring, and leaves N in a particular state (what balls are there). List the probability of each of these things happening, and what balls are in N.

Now, in each case, you can find the probability that two different-colored balls are chosen.

Then, think about how to put these probabilities together.

One thing I hope you can see is that this is not a simple problem; I don't immediately see an answer. What I've done so far is the way to start: just think about what's happening, and restate the problem to make it clearer. Don't expect to just plug numbers into a formula. That should be encouraging to you: The fact that you didn't get the answer quickly doesn't mean that you are dumb.
 
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