joebadcock1
New member
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2022
- Messages
- 7
I am trying to answer this question but am getting confused, if anyone can help me that would be great.
Historic data shows that 70% of people who end up in the detention hotel, are there because they made a minor mistake in the visa application, while 10% get put into the detention hotel because they lied in the visa application (and it’s possible to prove it), while 20% have missing documents. If a minor mistake was the reason behind the initial rejection, then each appeal has a 95% chance of being successful. However if the reason was a provable lie or missing documents, then an appeal gets rejected with probability 0.93. (a) [7 marks] Considering only the first round of appeals, find the probability that a randomly chosen person in the detention hotel made a minor mistake in their application given that their first appeal is approved.
Q = Considering only the first round of appeals, find the probability that a randomly chosen person in the detention hotel made a minor mistake in their application given that their first appeal is approved?
So far i have 0.7 x 0.95% = 0.665 which is the probability that a person with missing documents get in. However i'm not sure what this then needs to be conditioned on given the first appeal? or is it a trick question and this is the answer
First appeal | Second appeal | Outcome |
Successful | No second appeal | Entrance allowed |
Rejected | Successful | Entrance allowed |
Rejected | Rejected | Rejected |
Historic data shows that 70% of people who end up in the detention hotel, are there because they made a minor mistake in the visa application, while 10% get put into the detention hotel because they lied in the visa application (and it’s possible to prove it), while 20% have missing documents. If a minor mistake was the reason behind the initial rejection, then each appeal has a 95% chance of being successful. However if the reason was a provable lie or missing documents, then an appeal gets rejected with probability 0.93. (a) [7 marks] Considering only the first round of appeals, find the probability that a randomly chosen person in the detention hotel made a minor mistake in their application given that their first appeal is approved.
Q = Considering only the first round of appeals, find the probability that a randomly chosen person in the detention hotel made a minor mistake in their application given that their first appeal is approved?
So far i have 0.7 x 0.95% = 0.665 which is the probability that a person with missing documents get in. However i'm not sure what this then needs to be conditioned on given the first appeal? or is it a trick question and this is the answer