Elves

Oh well. If this thread had continued, I would have eventually mentioned a hint that makes it almost easy; unfortunately, it can only be used when you have reached a certain point in understanding the problem. But it's much more satisfying than just being given a formula that someone else worked out. (I didn't invent it, but was very happy when I was told it 20 years ago and realized how it worked.)

For the sake of anyone who might be interested, here it is: imagine there is a plate with 4 extra macaroons sitting in the room, which remains untouched throughout the story. Then keep track of the total number of macaroons present at each step, including these four. Complicated calculations become a whole lot simpler.
In a similar vein, I would have worked it backwards - starting from the morning after... with 5 treats (4 for the elves and 1 for the dog).
 
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