Fermat's Little Theorem says:
If p is a prime and a is any integer not divisible by p, then ap − 1 − 1 is divisible by p.
This is equivalent to the following two statements:
ap−1≡1(mod p) and
ap≡a(mod p)
It looks like you've tried to apply this in the second line of your workings, but this is incorrect, because 15 is not a prime number. In actuality,
1214≡9(mod 15). Because the number you're "modding by" isn't prime, Fermat's Little Theorem probably won't help much here. But some of the principles can still apply. You've correctly identified a possible rewriting of 12
49, so let's work with that for now:
1249=1214⋅3+7=(1214)3⋅127
Using a calculator, I determined that
1214≡9(mod 15). But, the problem specifically says not to use a calculator. So, let's apply the exact same tactics as above to break it down further.
1214=122⋅7=(122)7
12
2 = 144, and this is a small enough value that we can just do the division by hand and find that the remainder is 9. That tells us that
1214≡97(mod 15).
Iterating again will leave
97=92⋅3+1=(92)3∗9. Doing the division by hand shows that
92=81≡6(mod 15). This tells us that
97≡63⋅9(mod 15).
As it turns out,
63=216≡6(mod 15). This tells us that
97≡6⋅9=54≡9(mod 15).
This all leaves us with the conclusion that
1249≡93⋅127≡92⋅9⋅(122)3⋅12(mod 15). Try continuing from here and see what you get.