How do I calculate the probability of obtaining a positive bacterial clone?

LenaKay

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Jul 8, 2021
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Hi there and thank you in advance for taking the time to read this and help! Having some biology knowledge may help with solving this.

I am researcher working in a lab and I often grow bacteria clones. Some of the clones are the right ones (positive clones that carry the gene I try to introduce in them) and some clones are the negative ones that haven't picked up the gene. Always when I do a cloning experiment, I include the "negative control", which are bacteria that haven't been introduced to the gene of interest.

In general, if there are no clones growing in the negative control, then it's almost certain that all the clones growing on the positive plate are the right ones that carry the gene of interest. If there is the same number of clones growing in both plates, it could be that none of the clones on the positive plate (petri dish) actually carry the gene of interest.

I was wondering if the probability can be calculated that if I pick one clone from the positive plate, that clone is the right one, if we know the number of clones on the positive and the negative plates. In other words, how many clones do I have to pick to make sure there is at least one positive one?
 
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