how to map a group of numbers into odds/probability?

mathlol11

New member
Joined
Dec 17, 2018
Messages
1
hello guys, im now writing a spreadsheet for horse racing, and I have a group of numbers which I call it the "speed energy value" for each horse.
the higher the speed energy value, the higher chance for the horse to win the game. And what I want to do is to map this group of numbers into odds and compare it with the provided odds given by the bookmaker.
the horse with negative speed energy value is considered unlikely to win the game.

A sample is listed below. We can see the given odds it ranged from 3.5 to 75, and I want to simulate a table based on the speed energy value into another group of odds in similar range.

Thanks for the help and sorry for my poor english.

Horse No.
Speed Energy Value
Winning Odds Provided by the bookmaker
1
-1
20
2
3
3.5
3
1
7.2
4
5
31
5
4
48
6
1
4.9
7
-1
4.9
8
0
13
9
2
14
10
-2
14
11
-3
75
12
1
17
 

tkhunny

Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 12, 2005
Messages
9,812
hello guys, im now writing a spreadsheet for horse racing, and I have a group of numbers which I call it the "speed energy value" for each horse.
the higher the speed energy value, the higher chance for the horse to win the game. And what I want to do is to map this group of numbers into odds and compare it with the provided odds given by the bookmaker.
the horse with negative speed energy value is considered unlikely to win the game.

A sample is listed below. We can see the given odds it ranged from 3.5 to 75, and I want to simulate a table based on the speed energy value into another group of odds in similar range.

Thanks for the help and sorry for my poor english.

Horse No.
Speed Energy Value
Winning Odds Provided by the bookmaker
1
-1
20
2
3
3.5
3
1
7.2
4
5
31
5
4
48
6
1
4.9
7
-1
4.9
8
13
9
2
14
10
-2
14
11
-3
75
12
1
17
Well, you should see immediately one problem. For your Speed = 1, you have Book = 7.2, 4.9, and 17 -- Not a real clear relationship, there.

Problem#2. You say a higher speed number gives a higher probability of winning. This is not well defined. How much more? A percentage? A flat amount? Some function of the two scores being compared?

Problem #3. Should all your odds, when added together as percentages, sum to 1.0000? One would think so, but does it in you design?

Problem #4. You DO know that Bookmaker odds aren't really odds? They are more a function of the recent betting behavior of their customers.
 
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