Percentage overlap (newbie question)

[Cezzzarrr]

Hello,

To get right into it:

If 1 million people in the world die every week for various causes (except Covid-19),
and approx. 125 million people get their anti-Covid vaccine every week,
what is the chance that the two categories overlap?...
i.e. how many of the people who would have died anyway during a certain week, happen to also take the vaccine during the same week?

The point of the question is to determine what is the chance/risk for a death that would have occurred anyway (for other causes) to get attributed to the vaccine side-effects by mere chance/coincidence.

Also, if it's not too much to ask, I would like to understand the logic behind the math.

Thank you very much for your time.

 

[Harry_the_cat]

The world population as at Oct 2021 is 7.9 billion, ie 7,900,000,000.

If, as you say, 1 million people die every week from various causes (except Covid-19), then that means \(\displaystyle \frac{1}{7900} \) of the population die every week from various causes (except Covid-19)

So, if you take any random subset of size of 125 million from the world population, you would expect \(\displaystyle \frac{1}{7900}*125,000,000 \approx 15,823\) people to die from various causes (except Covid-19) anyway.

Without knowing how many deaths are attributed to the vaccine side-effects each week, your question cannot be fully answered.

Also, the death rates, Covid rates, vaccine rates vary significantly from country to country, from third-world countries to first-world countries, from state to state (or region to region) in the one country. Age and existing medical conditions are also important factors.

Other than for a purely academic reason, it doesn't seem useful to gather these statistics on a whole world basis, as they would have very little significance or relevance.

Just take the jab!!

 

[Otis]

I've often wondered, "What risk to my life am I taking by getting out of bed?"

The question is unanswerable, but I get up anyway.

 

[Cezzzarrr]

The world population as at Oct 2021 is 7.9 billion, ie 7,900,000,000.

If, as you say, 1 million people die every week from various causes (except Covid-19), then that means \(\displaystyle \frac{1}{7900} \) of the population die every week from various causes (except Covid-19)

So, if you take any random subset of size of 125 million from the world population, you would expect \(\displaystyle \frac{1}{7900}*125,000,000 \approx 15,823\) people to die from various causes (except Covid-19) anyway.

Without knowing how many deaths are attributed to the vaccine side-effects each week, your question cannot be fully answered.

Also, the death rates, Covid rates, vaccine rates vary significantly from country to country, from third-world countries to first-world countries, from state to state (or region to region) in the one country. Age and existing medical conditions are also important factors.

Other than for a purely academic reason, it doesn't seem useful to gather these statistics on a whole world basis, as they would have very little significance or relevance.

Just take the jab!!

Thanks for the effort to answer. Btw, I've already taken the jab twice, getting ready for the 3rd, got no problem with that.

My idea was to *very roughly* estimate what's the chance of conspiracy theorists to attribute deaths from other causes to the vaccine, and wrongly conclude it was the vaccine's fault, when in fact those people would have died anyway (of different causes).

In practice, let's say person X has an underlying heart condition that he doesn't even know about. His days are numbered even if he doesn't know it yet. He will have a heart attack the following week, but he doesn't know it yet. So he goes and takes the shot. And two days later, he dies. His heart attack was not caused by the vaccine in any way, but everyone around, including his family, blame the vaccine since he just had it 2 days ago.

Not sure if I can explain this any simpler than this, and I suspect you already got the point.

I was thinking that knowing how many people take the shot during 1 week, and how many people die, on average, during 1 week, there's at least some estimate that can be calculated on how much the two percentages can overlap, without getting too much into all the possible factors of influence, differences between countries, and so on. Not interested in all that, since this is not for some thesis, it's just out of personal curiosity.

Again, thanks for your time.

 

[Harry_the_cat]

Putting all the other factors aside, I suppose you could conclude that if there were significantly more than 15,823 people who died out of the 125 million who had their Covid vaccine that week, then something else (ie the vaccine) could be the cause. I'm not sure how you would quantify that though. So, for example if 1,000,000, rather than the expected 15,823 people, died out of that group of 125 million who just got the vaccine, then there would be cause for concern.
Glad to hear you've rolled your sleeves up. Same here!