Please check my math

EricsMath

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The population of Earth is approximately 7,600,000,000 (7.6 billion) and at the time of writing this 255,486 people have died from the virus globally that we know of, or 0.003% of all humans have died from the virus.

0.044% of all British people have died from the virus based on 29,502 deaths in a population of approximately 67,000,000.

British people are almost 15 times more likely to die of the virus than the average human being.

Is this correct or did I do something wrong?

Thanks.
 
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The population of Earth is approximately 7,600,000,000 (7.6 billion) and at the time of writing this 255,486 people have died from the virus globally that we know of, or 0.003% of all humans have died from the virus.

0.044% of all British people have died from the virus based on 29,502 deaths in a population of approximately 67,000,000.

British people are almost 15 times more likely to die of the virus than the average human being.

Is this correct or did I do something wrong?

Thanks.
Math looks correct, but the conclusion is questionable. "15 times more likely to die" appears to make a prediction, which needs a whole lot more supporting evidence.
I would say "The number per capita of British people who died from the virus is 15 times that of global population".
 
There's a small mistake in using the rounded value 0.003% rather than, say, 0.00336%; the answer (trusting all your data) is that 0.041% / 0.00336% = 12.2, rather than 15.

But the real error is in your words. It is not that "British people are almost 15 times more likely to die of the virus than the average human being", but rather, "British people are almost 15 times as likely to have died of the virus (so far) than the average human being."

One likely reason for this is that much of the world has not yet been affected! Your wording supposes that you know the overall probability, in the long term, and we aren't in a position to know that yet.

Checking your data at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, they show the UK as having had 433 deaths per million, which is 0.0433%, agreeing with your calculation. for the world, they show 33 deaths per million, which is 0.0033%. Clicking twice on the "Deaths/1M pop" heading to sort them, I see that most of the countries that are "above average" are in Europe or North America; I can imagine a number of reasons for the variation among countries.
 
Thank you both. You make important points. I want to be accurate.

My data on casualties is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and populations are from my Google home device.

If you owned a newspaper and you wanted to write this in the form of a headline that is both accurate and easy for almost anyone to understand, how would you write it?
 
Thank you both. You make important points. I want to be accurate.

My data on casualties is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and populations are from my Google home device.

If you owned a newspaper and you wanted to write this in the form of a headline that is both accurate and easy for almost anyone to understand, how would you write it?
I have nothing to add about the arithmetic, but I do have something to say about the statistics. Comparing public health statistics across countries is fraught with difficulties. They may not be compiled on consistent bases, and they frequently vary greatly in accuracy. In any case, comparing deaths without regard to infections means very little. A better approach is to compare the ratio of reported deaths from the disease over the reported cases. This still will encounter problems of consistency and accuracy across countries, but it avoids meaningless comparisons.
 
Thank you both. You make important points. I want to be accurate.

My data on casualties is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html and populations are from my Google home device.

If you owned a newspaper and you wanted to write this in the form of a headline that is both accurate and easy for almost anyone to understand, how would you write it?
I'd avoid any such headline, because, as JeffM said, any comparison will be misleading. Within the body of an article, I might say something like my rewrite, including comments about what it doesn't imply.
 
Thanks for sharing your opinion that these numbers are meaningless and/or misleading. You have all made great points.

Nevertheless these numbers can, will and are be reported.

Too often reports are indeed loaded with the opinions of those who are biased.

So I am trying to write it in such a way that is both short, accurate, easy to understand without having to engage ones slow thinking processes and, not loaded with opinion.

I came to this forum to check that my math was correct and so I am very grateful for that help.

I hope you all stay safe during these crazy days. Take care.
 
Thanks for sharing your opinion that these numbers are meaningless and/or misleading. You have all made great points.

Nevertheless these numbers can, will and are be reported.

Too often reports are indeed loaded with the opinions of those who are biased.

So I am trying to write it in such a way that is both short, accurate, easy to understand without having to engage ones slow thinking processes and, not loaded with opinion.

I came to this forum to check that my math was correct and so I am very grateful for that help.

I hope you all stay safe during these crazy days. Take care.
Oh, I did not mean to imply that you cannot report them. I am merely saying that it is deliberately deceptive.
 
Thank you and I also didn't think you meant to imply that such numbers can not be reported, I merely stated a fact. The data is publicly available on the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard that I linked to above as my source.

How is it deliberately deceptive? Is that not a non sequitur?
 
Thank you and I also didn't think you meant to imply that such numbers can not be reported, I merely stated a fact. The data is publicly available on the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard that I linked to above as my source.

How is it deliberately deceptive? Is that not a non sequitur?
No, it is not a non sequitur: things can be deceptive unintentionally.

Moreover, even truthful statements can be deceptive in intent, in effect, or both if they omit crucial context. Headlines are peculiarly susceptible to that because they are so brief that they necessarily omit most information

There are a number of related issues, represented by different statistics. One common statistic is the "case fatality rate," which measures how lethal the disease is in diagnosed cases. It has to be used with extreme care to avoid giving misleading implications. First and foremost, because it ignores undiagnosed cases, it is biased, often strongly biased, in favor of countries with a weak medical infrastructure because many people in such countries never receive a diagnosis, let alone an autopsy to determine cause of death. It is also biased by a decision on whether to include fatalities where the patient is merely known to have had the disease at time of death or whether to include only fatalities where it is quite probable that the patient died of the disease.

A related statistic is the infection fatality rate, which measures deaths from the disease in those who are infected. In principle, it is a much more informative statistic than the case fatality rate. In practice, it is not reliable, both because the number of infections is an estimate, with its crudity depending on the degree of testing and the accuracy of the tests, and because even the direction of bias cannot be reliably estimated.

A third statistic is the mortality rate, which measures fatalities from the disease as a percentage of population. Conceptually, it is the product of two ratios, the rate of infection, which is the number infected divided by the population, and the infection fatality rate, which is the number infected who died divided by the number number infected. The mortality rate thus confounds the effect of two different things and thus conceptually has almost no significance. Moreover, it suffers from the same sources of bias as the case fatality rate.

Thus, your statistic may mean: (1) the UK is suffering from a much higher rate of infection than the world as a whole, (2) the UK is suffering from a much higher high ratio of deaths among those infected than the world as whole, or (3) the UK has much more exact statistics on public health than the world as a whole. In the first two cases, the implication is adverse to the UK. In the third case, it is the reverse of adverse to the UK. When a statement, however truthful, may mean completely contrary things, it is misleading.
 
No, it is not a non sequitur: things can be deceptive unintentionally.

Moreover, even truthful statements can be deceptive in intent, in effect, or both if they omit crucial context. Headlines are peculiarly susceptible to that because they are so brief that they necessarily omit most information

There are a number of related issues, represented by different statistics. One common statistic is the "case fatality rate," which measures how lethal the disease is in diagnosed cases. It has to be used with extreme care to avoid giving misleading implications. First and foremost, because it ignores undiagnosed cases, it is biased, often strongly biased, in favor of countries with a weak medical infrastructure because many people in such countries never receive a diagnosis, let alone an autopsy to determine cause of death. It is also biased by a decision on whether to include fatalities where the patient is merely known to have had the disease at time of death or whether to include only fatalities where it is quite probable that the patient died of the disease.

A related statistic is the infection fatality rate, which measures deaths from the disease in those who are infected. In principle, it is a much more informative statistic than the case fatality rate. In practice, it is not reliable, both because the number of infections is an estimate, with its crudity depending on the degree of testing and the accuracy of the tests, and because even the direction of bias cannot be reliably estimated.

A third statistic is the mortality rate, which measures fatalities from the disease as a percentage of population. Conceptually, it is the product of two ratios, the rate of infection, which is the number infected divided by the population, and the infection fatality rate, which is the number infected who died divided by the number number infected. The mortality rate thus confounds the effect of two different things and thus conceptually has almost no significance. Moreover, it suffers from the same sources of bias as the case fatality rate.

Thus, your statistic may mean: (1) the UK is suffering from a much higher rate of infection than the world as a whole, (2) the UK is suffering from a much higher high ratio of deaths among those infected than the world as whole, or (3) the UK has much more exact statistics on public health than the world as a whole. In the first two cases, the implication is adverse to the UK. In the third case, it is the reverse of adverse to the UK. When a statement, however truthful, may mean completely contrary things, it is misleading.
Lies, damn lies and statistics....

From 1951 to 1952, the total unemployment of Switzerland increased by 200% - highest one year increase, for that time period, in the whole world (including 3rd. world).

In 1951 there were 17 adult unemployed in Switzerland - and In 1952 there were 51 adult unemployed in Switzerland.
 
Going public with written material worded like this;

British people are almost 15 times more likely to die of the virus than the average human being.

Could present you with many problems. Best advice with such a sensitive and serious outbreak at this time, leave it to the correct authorities to find the facts first.

I will just comment on your bold print above. I watch the news each day and can say that the only conversations professors and doctors have had on the TV news as I can remember talking about who is more likely to die from this virus, i.e. men or women, the experts advised men and they gave a reason (I can't remember the medical term used) saying women had two defenses built into their immune systems and men only had one.

Publishing non - factual information could have series legal implications.
 
Publishing non - factual information could have series legal implications.
Not in the US, where legal liability for commenting on matters of public interest requires proof of "malice or a reckless disregard for the truth," and truth is an absolute defense except for those subject to a duty of silence. And here falsity is presumably not at issue. The liability (if any) for reporting maliciously or with a reckless disregard for the truth would lie on Johns Hopkins rather than on someone accurately quoting them.

So the issue is not legal in the US. It solely depends on the OP's personal ethics.
 
The reason I came here was a sincere attempt to be accurate, a bit of self-fact-checking, as I am an intellectually honest critical thinking person. I came here to get my facts straight and change them if they were not.

I have just been accused of being deliberately deceptive. Which is literally impossible for anyone to know unless they are telepathic, which I'm thinking is somewhat unlikely.

"British people are almost 15 times more likely to die of the virus than the average human being." is not a statement of fact.

I acknowledged that above already and I agree that it's inaccurate. That is why I asked for input to change it to make it accurate when I said "If you owned a newspaper and you wanted to write this in the form of a headline that is both accurate and easy for almost anyone to understand, how would you write it? "

Using logical fallacies and being belligerent is unnecessary. So I have no interest in arguing with anyone, I am experienced enough to know what a waste of my time that would be, not to mention boring.

Thanks for experience. It's been, something.

Stay safe all.
 
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Ask a foolish question and get intemperate answers. Not everything can be explained accurately in a headline, and the attempt to do so after the complexities have been outlined is to be deliberately misleading.

Logical fallacies. Name one I have made.
 
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