Pr of particular event our of 20

[JohnDes]

Hi

Can someone please please help me

If there are 20 events in total, and
for 19 of the 20 events there is a 100% likelihood a particular man matches for the event;
but at one of the 20 events there is only a 5% likelihood or probability the same man matches that event.
However the particular man must be a match at all of the 20 events otherwise it cannot be him.

I need to know how to calculate the Pr or Likelihood the particular man is a match?


Thanks for any help provided

John Des

 

[sky2rain]

If you flip a biased coin that guarantees you a head 19 times and then another biased coin that has only 5% chance for a head 1 time, what’s the probability for all 20 coin flips to be all heads?

 

[sky2rain]

It seems the probability only depends on that 1 coin flip…