Prediction Interval Question

iocal

Junior Member
Joined
Jun 30, 2013
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68
Hi guys,

I'm a bit stuck in an exercise and I would appreciate some help.
Let X1,X2,...,Xn,Xn+1\displaystyle X_1,X_2,...,X_n,X_{n+1} be a random sample of size n+1, n>1, from a distribution that is N(μ,σ2)\displaystyle N(\mu,\sigma^2). Let Xˉ=i=1nXi/n\displaystyle \bar{X}=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i/n and S2=i=1n(XiXˉ)2/(n1)\displaystyle S^2=\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i-\bar{X})^2 /(n-1). Show that in order for the statistic c(XˉXn+1)/S\displaystyle c(\bar{X}-X_{n+1})/S to have a t-distribution, the constant c must equal n1n+1\displaystyle \sqrt{\frac{n-1}{n+1}}.

Okay, we can view the statistic as a difference in means Confidence Interval. From the definition of the t-distribution we know that T=WV/r\displaystyle T=\frac{W}{\sqrt{V/r}} where WN(0,1) and Vχ2(r)\displaystyle W\sim N(0,1)\ and\ V\sim \chi^2(r).
We know that XˉN(μ,σ2n)\displaystyle \bar{X}\sim N(\mu,\frac{\sigma^2}{n}) and Xn+1N(μ,σ2)\displaystyle X_{n+1}\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2). Since those two are independent(because of the random sample) we can say that the total variance is equal to σ2(n+1n)\displaystyle \sigma^2(\frac{n+1}{n}). Since the means are equal our numerator then becomes nXˉXn+1σn+1\displaystyle \displaystyle\sqrt{n} \frac{\bar{X}-X_{n+1}}{\sigma\sqrt{n+1}}.
My problem is now to find the chi squared distributed denominator that will give me the n1\displaystyle \sqrt{n-1} part of c. Since the variances are unequal I do not think we can use a pooled estimator. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated. Thanks.


EDIT: I have looked it up extensively in the meantime and it seems that everyone uses the coefficient nn+1\displaystyle \displaystyle\frac{\sqrt{n}}{\sqrt{n+1}} instead of n1n+1\displaystyle \displaystyle \frac{\sqrt{n-1}}{\sqrt{n+1}}. The first case is the one I am able to show and it conforms with my intuition but I do not know which one is correct. Could it be that my book is mistaken at this point? God, this is confusing indeed.
 
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