AYouQueTai
New member
- Joined
- Feb 19, 2021
- Messages
- 1
Hello,
I'm stuck on a few probability questions. I'm hoping you can help.
I am trying to determine how many goals will be scored in a game.
I know that 385 goals have been scored in 63 games in the North Division. so that gives me a 3.06 Goals For Average and Goals Against average for each team.
I have broken down the team stats to see their averages as well. Calgary for example has scored 44 goals in 17 games for a 2.59 GFA. They have allowed 46 goals in 17 games for a 2.71 GAA
I then divided the GFA with the divisional average to get a Goals For Value
Also divided the GAA with the divisional average to get a Goals Against Value because each goal has a different value. It's easier to score vs Ottawa then it is against Winnipeg. so if someone scores against Ottawa they will only get credit for 0.75 of a goal but 1.15 if they score against Winnipeg. (I think this is the right way to do it?)
Now i'm dividing the GF Value of team a (Calgary) by the GA Value of team b(Edmonton) and multiplying it by Edmonton's GAA to get a score of 2.58 for Calgary.
And i'm dividing the GF Value of team b (Edmonton) by the GA Value of team a(Calgary) and multiplying it by Calgary's GAA to get a score of 3.99 for Edmonton.
I get confused when I try to incorporate a team's likely hood to score 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7+ goals into this? Edmonton scores 3 or 4 goals exactly in 63 % of their games.
But how do I factor in that Calgary also allows 3 or 4 goals 59% of the time? How do I mix Edmonton's GF 0,1,2,3,4,5,67+ stats with Calgary's GA 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7+ stats?
I'm stuck on a few probability questions. I'm hoping you can help.
I am trying to determine how many goals will be scored in a game.
I know that 385 goals have been scored in 63 games in the North Division. so that gives me a 3.06 Goals For Average and Goals Against average for each team.
I have broken down the team stats to see their averages as well. Calgary for example has scored 44 goals in 17 games for a 2.59 GFA. They have allowed 46 goals in 17 games for a 2.71 GAA
I then divided the GFA with the divisional average to get a Goals For Value
Also divided the GAA with the divisional average to get a Goals Against Value because each goal has a different value. It's easier to score vs Ottawa then it is against Winnipeg. so if someone scores against Ottawa they will only get credit for 0.75 of a goal but 1.15 if they score against Winnipeg. (I think this is the right way to do it?)
Now i'm dividing the GF Value of team a (Calgary) by the GA Value of team b(Edmonton) and multiplying it by Edmonton's GAA to get a score of 2.58 for Calgary.
And i'm dividing the GF Value of team b (Edmonton) by the GA Value of team a(Calgary) and multiplying it by Calgary's GAA to get a score of 3.99 for Edmonton.
I get confused when I try to incorporate a team's likely hood to score 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7+ goals into this? Edmonton scores 3 or 4 goals exactly in 63 % of their games.
But how do I factor in that Calgary also allows 3 or 4 goals 59% of the time? How do I mix Edmonton's GF 0,1,2,3,4,5,67+ stats with Calgary's GA 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7+ stats?
