Hello everyone, I'm hoping for some help with determining a formula. My friends and I are watching the Australian Survivor show where 24 players are left on an island and a player is eliminated each episode until there is one survivor remaining (the winner). We've set up a sweepstake for our group. There are five people in our group and the 24 survivor players have been split randomly between us. Due to the uneven and random split of survivor players, one of my friends ended up with four players while the rest of us have five.
I have the odds for each of the 24 players from a betting agency but I'm wondering if there is a formula I could use to calculate the probability of each of my friends having the winner in their group of four or five survivor players based on the individual odds for each player? Hopefully this formula would also take into account the players that are eliminated each episode. For example, one friend would start with a slight disadvantage because they only have four players to begin with while the rest of us have five. As the show progresses and players are eliminated, the formula would then take into account that some of my friends may only have two or three players remaining in the game (although these players may be strong contenders and have short odds) while some friends may still have all five of their players remaining in the game.
I have created a spreadsheet with each of the 24 players in their own row (grouped into groups of four or five for each of my friends) so can use excel to make the formula. Column A has the players names, Column B has their current odds (taken from a betting agency website) and columns C - Y have the spaces for the results of each elimination.
I'm hoping that makes sense but please feel free to ask any questions if it would help clarify my question!
Thanks!
I have the odds for each of the 24 players from a betting agency but I'm wondering if there is a formula I could use to calculate the probability of each of my friends having the winner in their group of four or five survivor players based on the individual odds for each player? Hopefully this formula would also take into account the players that are eliminated each episode. For example, one friend would start with a slight disadvantage because they only have four players to begin with while the rest of us have five. As the show progresses and players are eliminated, the formula would then take into account that some of my friends may only have two or three players remaining in the game (although these players may be strong contenders and have short odds) while some friends may still have all five of their players remaining in the game.
I have created a spreadsheet with each of the 24 players in their own row (grouped into groups of four or five for each of my friends) so can use excel to make the formula. Column A has the players names, Column B has their current odds (taken from a betting agency website) and columns C - Y have the spaces for the results of each elimination.
I'm hoping that makes sense but please feel free to ask any questions if it would help clarify my question!
Thanks!
