Probability of scoring over a certain score given a history of scores

Paddygg33

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Jan 13, 2019
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Hi guys, for some context I am an avid fantasy football player and I play on a website where players can win you prizes when they score over a certain certain number of points through their actions in a game. I do have a maths degree but it has been a while and I am struggling with what I believe should be quite a simple process.

I have a data set of all the past scores for a variety of the players in my team so I can work out their mean score and the standard deviation of their scores and I want to know what percentage of the time they will beat their target score (this changes based on a players position).

For example one player I have has a mean score of 180 a standard deviation of 34.2 his target score is 216. How often will he manage to beat that score?

Cheers!
 
Just stuck with how to go about it! I feel like there should be a way but I just don't know it!
 
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