In trying to convince the readers of my book that the Mary therein was truly a murderess, I had wanted to additionally employ a probability analysis, but failed in this endeavor. Mary used several techniques, it appears, and had at least one accomplice. Of a very successful mining family, she had unlimited access to money and manpower. Cyanide was also extensively used in mining operations at the time. Poisoning was often misdiagnosed as pneumonia, tuberculosis, jaundice, liver failure, chest pains, apoplexy, paralysis, and gastro problems.
Here are the factors:
1. A total of 15 men earned the wrath of Mary. A result was that 13 of them died under questionable circumstances. Some were sick several times before they succumbed.
2. One was hit, on a bridge, by a train, while working on switch maintenance (no switches on bridges!) on a one-person velocipede. At the time, the fatality rate for railroad workers was 2.67/1000. I suspect he was incapacitated and merely placed on the bridge, close (within 1 mile) to where Mary was living at the time.
3. Two died in mine "accidents," at a time when the fatality rate was 3.13/1000.
4. Eight died of "gastric" or other complaints which could be related to poisoning, at a time when the fatality rate was 1.4/1000 gastro; 2.0/1000 pneumonia; 1.9/1000 tuberculosis; 1.37/1000 heart (about 1.7/1000 average).
5. Two died of unknown causes. Of these, one was a rival banker just in the process of having a new bank built across the street, and the other was an errant husband who was touring the West Coast by car with friends.
6. Two remained extremely diligent, and survived. But, for one of these two, who was living alone was his widowed mother, the mother became paralyzed, dying seven years later. I can find no other instance of Mary targeting a woman, and surmise the real target was the son. For the other survivor, he lived with his brother, who had one of the above mine accidents.
So, how to frame this? In the simplest terms, 13 out of 15 "enemies" had fatalities.
But I am looking for the proof that these were not mere coincidences. Probably, in STAT terms, the probability that all of this occurred. I think this is something like (2.67/1000) * (3.13/1000) * 3.13/1000) * (1.7/1000)......Correct? But these are annual rates, so 2.67/1000 * (years of average employment?)
I would greatly appreciate any assistance you could give. I'm an ex-engineer, but I'm lost. Thank you and best regards, Mike
Here are the factors:
1. A total of 15 men earned the wrath of Mary. A result was that 13 of them died under questionable circumstances. Some were sick several times before they succumbed.
2. One was hit, on a bridge, by a train, while working on switch maintenance (no switches on bridges!) on a one-person velocipede. At the time, the fatality rate for railroad workers was 2.67/1000. I suspect he was incapacitated and merely placed on the bridge, close (within 1 mile) to where Mary was living at the time.
3. Two died in mine "accidents," at a time when the fatality rate was 3.13/1000.
4. Eight died of "gastric" or other complaints which could be related to poisoning, at a time when the fatality rate was 1.4/1000 gastro; 2.0/1000 pneumonia; 1.9/1000 tuberculosis; 1.37/1000 heart (about 1.7/1000 average).
5. Two died of unknown causes. Of these, one was a rival banker just in the process of having a new bank built across the street, and the other was an errant husband who was touring the West Coast by car with friends.
6. Two remained extremely diligent, and survived. But, for one of these two, who was living alone was his widowed mother, the mother became paralyzed, dying seven years later. I can find no other instance of Mary targeting a woman, and surmise the real target was the son. For the other survivor, he lived with his brother, who had one of the above mine accidents.
So, how to frame this? In the simplest terms, 13 out of 15 "enemies" had fatalities.
But I am looking for the proof that these were not mere coincidences. Probably, in STAT terms, the probability that all of this occurred. I think this is something like (2.67/1000) * (3.13/1000) * 3.13/1000) * (1.7/1000)......Correct? But these are annual rates, so 2.67/1000 * (years of average employment?)
I would greatly appreciate any assistance you could give. I'm an ex-engineer, but I'm lost. Thank you and best regards, Mike