Probability to 100% sucess rate

[JRR5639]

I wish to develop a mechanism for myself it is sort of hard to google where to find the answer it's sort of like Mendel pea pod for genotypes how much is needed to get what you want.

So if I have a 70 percent sucess rate at getting yes or no correct to any given question. How many times would I have to ask the question to repeatedly to get to a 100 percent sucess on the question.

My first thought would be ask 10 times go with the answer that shows up 7 times and not the one with 3 yet it still would seem an issue could acure. So how would I most likely be able to say answer 10 questions with 100 percent success rate and then possibly answer the question are these results accurate as in all 10 are accurate and good to be sent in?

It would be nice to have an equation or if you have a link to a calculator or how to find out with a calculator if the sucess rate changes.

Thank you!

 

[JRR5639]

Oh and I do understand 100 percent success is not really possible unless my success rate is 100 percent so the equation would be the quickest to get most likely results like 95% is optimum or better unless 90% is much easier and quicker don't really want to go bellow that though each question takes 5 minutes to answer or longer so I am seeking to save time as well theoretically.

This is also for self learning I am 37 and not attending school since my DTS with YWAM when I was 23.

 

[khansaheb]

I have a 70 percent success rate at getting yes or no correct

I plan to help you DERIVE the formula you are seeking.

What will be the probability that you are NOT successful at FIRST (1) try? ........... = 1 - 0.70 = 0.30

What will be the probability that you are NOT successful at SECOND (2) try ALSO? ........... (0.30)²

Now then

What will be the probability that you are successful after FIRST OR SECOND try ?

Continue......

 

[Dr.Peterson]

This is also for self learning

Please tell us what you are learning, so we can have an idea what to expect you to be able to do yourself, and how much to demand of you.

If this is a problem for a class, we'll want to know what the class is, and what the exact wording of the problem is.

So if I have a 70 percent sucess rate at getting yes or no correct to any given question. How many times would I have to ask the question to repeatedly to get to a 100 percent sucess on the question.

My first thought would be ask 10 times go with the answer that shows up 7 times and not the one with 3 yet it still would seem an issue could acure. So how would I most likely be able to say answer 10 questions with 100 percent success rate and then possibly answer the question are these results accurate as in all 10 are accurate and good to be sent in?

This is rather vague, and details make a large difference in probability problems. Please tell us what the actual situation is that you are asking about, rather than pretending it is about Mendel or about asking questions. Changing the model can change the answer in ways you don't know enough to see.

 

[JRR5639]

I plan to help you DERIVE the formula you are seeking.

What will be the probability that you are NOT successful at FIRST (1) try? ........... = 1 - 0.70 = 0.30

What will be the probability that you are NOT successful at SECOND (2) try ALSO? ........... (0.30)²

Now then

What will be the probability that you are successful after FIRST OR SECOND try ?

Continue...... if done ten times and each time the same answer comes up to decide on that answer is no longer a 70 percent outcome its more of a 95 percent at that point though because hiting 30 percent 10 times in a row would be much harder. While technicly it should be 7 to 3 which at that point it would be rather safe to go with the 7 and have a higher percent chance of being correct then the initial 70 percent because you are using statistics in this question you do get to use the data.

 

[JRR5639]

To make it more simple I have a 1d10 die and I want to know how many times I must roll if I have 1-7 win vs 8-10 failure that's how your looking at it then me choosing at the end which would make it 30 percent failure still but the way it is is 50/50 with me choosing correctly 7/10 times and getting to look at the data and choose 1 vs 2 or yes vs no based on which one came up 70 percent. Though I hope to use statistics to make it more like 95 percent.

 

[JRR5639]

3 times for a 97.3 success rate found a probability calculator question solved thanks.

 

[Dr.Peterson]

3 times for a 97.3 success rate found a probability calculator question solved thanks.

I very much doubt that you have solved your actual question, which is considerably more complicated (to the extent I understand it) than what @khansaheb told you about.

What you've found is the probability that, if you repeat an action that will be correct 70% of the time, it will be correct at least once. You won't know which answer was right!

To make it more simple I have a 1d10 die and I want to know how many times I must roll if I have 1-7 win vs 8-10 failure that's how your looking at it then me choosing at the end which would make it 30 percent failure still but the way it is is 50/50 with me choosing correctly 7/10 times and getting to look at the data and choose 1 vs 2 or yes vs no based on which one came up 70 percent. Though I hope to use statistics to make it more like 95 percent.

This is still extremely hard to follow; no better than your first version.

So if I have a 70 percent success rate at getting yes or no correct to any given question. How many times would I have to ask the question to repeatedly to get to a 100 percent success on the question.

It you repeatedly answer questions, with a 70% success rate each time you answer one, then on the average you will have been right 70% of the time. It will have almost no chance of being right 100% of the time.

My first thought would be ask 10 times go with the answer that shows up 7 times and not the one with 3 yet it still would seem an issue could [occur]. So how would I most likely be able to say answer 10 questions with 100 percent success rate and then possibly answer the question are these results accurate as in all 10 are accurate and good to be sent in?

I'm trying to figure out what you are talking about. Is this about taking something like an online test with true/false questions, and you think if you answer a question repeatedly you'll have a better chance of getting it right? Or do you mean you answer many questions and hope to get nearly 100% of them right? Or is it, as you seem to be saying here, about you asking questions of 10 people who are right 70% of the time, and wanting to decide when to accept their answer? This just doesn't make sense to me. But in any case, none of these scenarios would be what you've solved.