probability under uncertainty

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abdul rehman

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I need to use probability for uncertainty, using very few information, which method should I use. Bayes, Baysian or any thing else.
e.g
How can I solve this problem Prob: You are going to grocery store and a person meets you that is known to you as 4 at the scale of 10. He tells you the store is closed, i am coming from there. What is the probability he is telling the truth?

Thanks


REPLY
 
What type of help do you need? Where are you stuck. To receive help we need to know what you need help with. We do not solve problems for students here but we do help the student solve their own problem.

Also can we get a better translation of the problem?
 
Jomo said:
What type of help do you need? Where are you stuck. To receive help we need to know what you need help with. We do not solve problems for students here but we do help the student solve their own problem.

Also can we get a better translation of the problem?
Click to expand...
The above mentioned e.g is the idea where I need help to apply any method of probability, if you can guide
 
abdul rehman said:
I need to use probability for uncertainty, using very few information, which method should I use. Bayes, Baysian or any thing else.
e.g
How can I solve this problem Prob: You are going to grocery store and a person meets you that is known to you as 4 at the scale of 10. He tells you the store is closed, i am coming from there. What is the probability he is telling the truth?
Click to expand...
How are you defining "4 at the scale of 10"?
 
abdul rehman said:
4 is predefined trust score. Or you can say that it is obtained by this person's past interaction.
Click to expand...

So are you saying that you assume based on past evidence that the probability that something he says is true, is 4/10?
 
You've already answered your question, unless you asked it incorrectly: The probability that he is telling the truth is 4/10.
 
You'll need to provide additional information! The only numbers you gave are the 4/10, so that's the only probability we can state.
 
What are you studying? You are using a term, "uncertainty," that has a restricted meaning in economics, which does lead to the use of subjective probabilities in association with a cost function. However, you have not provided a cost function.

If one person in a thousand is a liar and there are no indicia of whether a random person is a liar or not, then the probability that a random person is a liar is

[MATH]\dfrac{1}{1,000} = 0.001 \text { or equivalently } 0.1\%. [/MATH]
 
JeffM said:
What are you studying? You are using a term, "uncertainty," that has a restricted meaning in economics, which does lead to the use of subjective probabilities in association with a cost function. However, you have not provided a cost function.

If one person in a thousand is a liar and there are no indicia of whether a random person is a liar or not, then the probability that a random person is a liar is

[MATH]\dfrac{1}{1,000} = 0.001 \text { or equivalently } 0.1\%. [/MATH]
Click to expand...
so where the 4 gone? secondly I am working on a research topic and I stuck on some issue, so thats why i was not telling you the detail. I you are willing to help me we can discuss in private message. Meanwhile, I you can please solve the above including 4/10
 
abdul rehman said:
so where the 4 gone? secondly I am working on a research topic and I stuck on some issue, so thats why i was not telling you the detail. I you are willing to help me we can discuss in private message. Meanwhile, I you can please solve the above including 4/10
Click to expand...
I was answering your question in post 11. There was no 4 in it.

I am not an expert in probability theory so I am certainly not the best person here to ask. Furthermore, there seems to be a substantial language barrier. If French is your native language, I may be able to help with translation though it has been decades since I used French daily. In any case, I think you need to provide us with an English description of the "trust score." We are interpreting it as one tenth the probability that you are looking for (expressed as a percentage). That is a score of 4 means a probability of approximately 40%.
 
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