In his book Harbinger 2 the christian seer Jonathan Cahn tells us Hudson discovered Manhattan on 9/11/1609, they started to build the Pentagon on 9/11/1941 and Americas enemies brought the twin towers down on 9/11/2001. I wondered what was the probability of these 3 independent but related things happening on the same date over a span of 392 years. My effort was 365*365*365*3/392, but i don't think thats right, the people i have asked up to now don't know so it has started bugging me. The 365 represents the 3 dates above, then i thought i may have to factor in the time span so 3/392 but i don't think that is correct, i would much appreciate it if someone could give me the answer.
SAME DATE PROBABILITY
- Thread starter JOHN60
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What does that huge number (365*365*365*3/392 ~ 372146) represent - in your opinion?
Please also explain why do you think so!
Dr.Peterson
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In order to make a meaningful calculation, you would have to consider how many other significant events there are that might have been listed. For comparison, the probability that, say, my two brothers and I would all get our first tooth on the same date (ignoring the fact that one is my twin) would be fairly small (0.0000075), but the probability that some three people in the history of the world would all get their first tooth on the same date is essentially 1 (virtually certain). The probability that some three events out of all possible events related in some way to the 9/11 event would happen on that date depends on how many such events there are.
And in any case, asking about the probability of any event that you identify after the fact is virtually meaningless. The probability that I would type the letter X at this precise moment is zero, but it happened!
What is the number of historical events significant enough to have their dates recorded?
Likely hundreds of thousands, right? But let’s say that the number of events with a recorded day and month is a mere 10,000.
Then, on average, a particular month and day will have 27 events associated with it. Some will have more and some less, but the probability that a specific month and day will have fewer than 3 recorded events that happened then is essentially zero. In other words, the fact that AT LEAST three events significant enough to be recorded happened on the same day and month is essentially an absolute certainty and has no meaning at all
Likely hundreds of thousands, right? But let’s say that the number of events with a recorded day and month is a mere 10,000.
Then, on average, a particular month and day will have 27 events associated with it. Some will have more and some less, but the probability that a specific month and day will have fewer than 3 recorded events that happened then is essentially zero. In other words, the fact that AT LEAST three events significant enough to be recorded happened on the same day and month is essentially an absolute certainty and has no meaning at all
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Actually it is straight forward - only the biblical reference is meaningless.
HallsofIvy
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The basic rule is- "you can't calculate probabilities a-posteriori!"
Suppose I am asked to "pick a number from 1 to 1,000,000". I pick 54,937. Can I now say "The probability of picking that number was 1 in a million! It's a miracle!"?
Suppose I am asked to "pick a number from 1 to 1,000,000". I pick 54,937. Can I now say "The probability of picking that number was 1 in a million! It's a miracle!"?