maxwelledison
New member
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2020
- Messages
- 1
I am faced with an unfortunate, however VERY slim chance, of a particularly unsatisfactory medical condition. I know the chances of said condition coming to fruition, but given that there is also a dynamic timeline, I'm a bit confused on the math. So, if someone can give me the answer to this I'm sure it will ease my VERY anxious mind a bit. I'm not sure I'm going to word this properly, but I'll try..
Think of this as a science experiment in terms of the setup for this. The test subjects are entered into a YES or NO situation, the chance of YES being 1 out of 665, and the chance of NO of course being 664 out of 665. This YES or NO over the timeline of this study can, however, change, but only from NO to YES. At the timeline Benchmark A, 95% of the test subjects in this study that will get a YES will get the YES definitively at this point, and if that occurs the study is over and the rest of this does not matter for that test subject.
But, if the subject gets a NO at Benchmark A, the definitive nature of this can only be measured retroactively at Benchmark B, so it is possible to get a NO at Benchmark A and then a YES at Benchmark B, but getting a NO at Benchmark A obviously presents a much less chance of a YES at Benchmark B.
At timeline Benchmark B, the remaining 5% of the test subjects in this study will know if their NO is changed to a YES.
So, to the question I want to know the answer to - knowing that the chances of getting a YES at Benchmark A is 1 out of 665, if a test subject gets a NO (chances 664 out of 665) at Benchmark A, what are the chances that the subject will end up with a YES by Benchmark B given the information above?
Hopefully I didn't over-complicate this too much. I just wanted to be sure I gave all the information. Thank you in advance! Please help me ease my worried mind with some data so I can maybe sleep and eat normally again!
Think of this as a science experiment in terms of the setup for this. The test subjects are entered into a YES or NO situation, the chance of YES being 1 out of 665, and the chance of NO of course being 664 out of 665. This YES or NO over the timeline of this study can, however, change, but only from NO to YES. At the timeline Benchmark A, 95% of the test subjects in this study that will get a YES will get the YES definitively at this point, and if that occurs the study is over and the rest of this does not matter for that test subject.
But, if the subject gets a NO at Benchmark A, the definitive nature of this can only be measured retroactively at Benchmark B, so it is possible to get a NO at Benchmark A and then a YES at Benchmark B, but getting a NO at Benchmark A obviously presents a much less chance of a YES at Benchmark B.
At timeline Benchmark B, the remaining 5% of the test subjects in this study will know if their NO is changed to a YES.
So, to the question I want to know the answer to - knowing that the chances of getting a YES at Benchmark A is 1 out of 665, if a test subject gets a NO (chances 664 out of 665) at Benchmark A, what are the chances that the subject will end up with a YES by Benchmark B given the information above?
Hopefully I didn't over-complicate this too much. I just wanted to be sure I gave all the information. Thank you in advance! Please help me ease my worried mind with some data so I can maybe sleep and eat normally again!