What would the sum be? If...

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marc.burton123

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Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% (it kills 0.1% of people catching it). The Coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.4%

0.1% means 1 in 1000 will die. 89,000 have already died of seasonal flu, which means 89m caught seasonal flu.

3.4% means 34 in 1000 will die. If Coronavirus is as contagious as seasonal flu, 3,026,000 will die.

How contagious is Coronavirus compared to seasonal flu? Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average - by comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3.

Needs a mathematician to work that out...

What would the sum be?
 
February 21, 2020 ABC news report suggests 16,000 Flu deaths and 280,000 hospitalizations. Perhaps we need a recount on those flu deaths you've suggested? Official CDC count for the U.S. is 4,800 deaths out of 9.7 million cases. This suggests only 0.05% mortality, half the rate you reported. Different countries exhibit different results. Different regions exhibit different results.

Infecting 2.2 (or 1.3) others assumes free access to the entire population. Restriction or quarantine of the infected reduces this number. More defensive behavior by the uninfected reduces this number. Effective vaccines greatly reduce this number.

Better data will improve your projections and you won't end up wiping out entire countries. This is why we don't do simplifications if at all possible. News agencies and politicos LOVE to put scare data in front of people's faces. No need to perpetuate this behavior.
 
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